The container ship fleet is witnessing a rapid increase in capacity, demonstrating a surge in fleet capacity that has not been witnessed in the last decade. The first half of 2024 saw a record-breaking delivery of new vessels straight from shipyards, with 264 ships totaling a capacity of 1.6 million TEU being delivered—a two-thirds increase compared to the previous year’s high.
Constant high demand for cargo space and ship transport has led to a low recycling rate for ships. Although a new benchmark has not yet been established, just 36 ships have been recycled as a result of significant growth in cargo volume and the rerouting of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope.
Shipowners have nevertheless placed orders for new ships – orders for 63 ships totaling 0.4 million TEU have been placed so far this year, and the order book-to-fleet ratio is still rather strong at 19%. Orders for delivery in 2028 are already listed in the order book, and an average of 1.5 million TEU are expected to be delivered between 2025 and 2027.
The ships with a combined capacity of 12k–17k TEU have driven growth at the fastest rate. With a share of 22%, this category is currently the largest within the container fleet. The capacity of the segment increased 25% YoY, accounting for approximately 50% of the expansion in the fleet as a whole.
Ships over 17k TEU accounted for only 17% of the order book’s capacity, even though they dominated growth from 2015 to 2021. Since there are already ships in service that cover the majority of these trade lanes and the larger ships are operationally restricted to ports in Asia and Europe, shipowners’ attention has switched away from these vessels.
By the conclusion of the third quarter, the capacity of the container fleet is predicted to surpass 30 million TEU for the first time, reaching 30.5 million by the end of 2024. The present order book will add an additional 4.3 million TEU by the end of 2027. Given the uncertain growth in cargo volume, we anticipate a rise in ship recycling and a deceleration of fleet growth overall. Furthermore, if these ships are able to eventually return to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, the demand for ships will fall further.
